🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."