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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still